Minerva Punjab 2–2 Manang Marshyangdi

Minerva Punjab

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Manang Marshyangdi

5/1/2019

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Kalinga Stadium (Bhubaneswar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Minerva Punjab60%

×Draw21%

Manang Marshyangdi18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minerva PunjabExpected goals in this matchManang Marshyangdi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.00

Minerva Punjab

2.00

Manang Marshyangdi

1.00

Minerva Punjab creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

1.33

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Minerva Punjab

1.00

Manang Marshyangdi

0.67

allows per match

Minerva Punjab

1.33

Manang Marshyangdi

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minerva Punjab+0.00on par

Manang Marshyangdi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minerva Punjab ↓

Manang Marshyangdi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Minerva Punjab or draw

82%

Minerva Punjab or Manang Marshyangdi

79%

Draw or Manang Marshyangdi

40%

Winning margin

Minerva Punjab wins by 2+

36%

Manang Marshyangdi wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Minerva Punjab 1+ goals

86%

Minerva Punjab 2+ goals

59%

Minerva Punjab 3+ goals

32%

Manang Marshyangdi 1+ goals

63%

Manang Marshyangdi 2+ goals

26%

Manang Marshyangdi 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)

77%

Manang Marshyangdi (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minerva Punjab at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Manang Marshyangdi away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minerva Punjab attack 1.00 + Manang Marshyangdi defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Manang Marshyangdi attack 0.67 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Minerva Punjab scores more

60%

level

21%

Manang Marshyangdi scores more

18%

Minerva Punjab at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Minerva Punjab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff