Minerva Punjab 3–1 Indian Arrows: Result & Stats

Minerva Punjab

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Indian Arrows

4/6/2022

I-League · Round 10Naihati Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Minerva Punjab60%

×Draw24%

Indian Arrows16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minerva PunjabExpected goals in this matchIndian Arrows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.71

Minerva Punjab

1.64

Indian Arrows

0.71

Minerva Punjab creates 131% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 26 away

1.82

creates per match

0.42

1.00

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Minerva Punjab

1.82

Indian Arrows

0.42

allows per match

Minerva Punjab

1.00

Indian Arrows

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minerva Punjab+0.00on par

Indian Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minerva Punjab ↓

Indian Arrows →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Minerva Punjab or draw

84%

Minerva Punjab or Indian Arrows

76%

Draw or Indian Arrows

40%

Winning margin

Minerva Punjab wins by 2+

33%

Indian Arrows wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Minerva Punjab 1+ goals

81%

Minerva Punjab 2+ goals

49%

Minerva Punjab 3+ goals

23%

Indian Arrows 1+ goals

51%

Indian Arrows 2+ goals

16%

Indian Arrows 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)

79%

Indian Arrows (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minerva Punjab at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Indian Arrows away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minerva Punjab attack 1.82 + Indian Arrows defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.64

Indian Arrows attack 0.42 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Minerva Punjab scores more

60%

level

24%

Indian Arrows scores more

16%

Minerva Punjab at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Minerva Punjab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff