Minerva Punjab 0–1 Abahani: Result & Stats

Minerva Punjab

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Abahani

6/26/2019

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Indira Gandhi Athletic Stadium (Guwahati)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Minerva Punjab41%

×Draw28%

Abahani31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minerva PunjabExpected goals in this matchAbahani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.06

Minerva Punjab

1.25

Abahani

1.06

Minerva Punjab creates 18% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

0.80

1.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Minerva Punjab

1.00

Abahani

0.80

allows per match

Minerva Punjab

1.33

Abahani

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minerva Punjab+0.00on par

Abahani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minerva Punjab ↓

Abahani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Minerva Punjab or draw

69%

Minerva Punjab or Abahani

72%

Draw or Abahani

59%

Winning margin

Minerva Punjab wins by 2+

18%

Abahani wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Minerva Punjab 1+ goals

71%

Minerva Punjab 2+ goals

36%

Minerva Punjab 3+ goals

13%

Abahani 1+ goals

65%

Abahani 2+ goals

29%

Abahani 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)

56%

Abahani (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minerva Punjab at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Abahani away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minerva Punjab attack 1.00 + Abahani defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Abahani attack 0.80 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Minerva Punjab scores more

41%

level

28%

Abahani scores more

31%

Minerva Punjab at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Minerva Punjab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff