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Minerva Lintgen vs UN Kaerjeng 97 — Cup 2020

Minerva Lintgen
Minerva Lintgen
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
UN Kaerjeng 97
UN Kaerjeng 97advanced
9/21/2025CupCup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Minerva Lintgen17%
×Draw19%
UN Kaerjeng 9763%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minerva Lintgen
1.08
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.25

UN Kaerjeng 97 creates 108% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Minerva Lintgen
1.29
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.63

allows per match

Minerva Lintgen
1.86
UN Kaerjeng 97
0.88

finishing

Minerva Lintgen+0.00on par
UN Kaerjeng 97+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minerva Lintgen ↓

UN Kaerjeng 97 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Minerva Lintgen or draw
37%
Minerva Lintgen or UN Kaerjeng 97
81%
Draw or UN Kaerjeng 97
83%

Winning margin

Minerva Lintgen wins by 2+
6%
UN Kaerjeng 97 wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Minerva Lintgen 1+ goals
66%
Minerva Lintgen 2+ goals
29%
Minerva Lintgen 3+ goals
10%
UN Kaerjeng 97 1+ goals
89%
UN Kaerjeng 97 2+ goals
65%
UN Kaerjeng 97 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Minerva Lintgen (draw refunded)
21%
UN Kaerjeng 97 (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minerva Lintgen at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

UN Kaerjeng 97 away — creates 2.63, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minerva Lintgen attack 1.29 + UN Kaerjeng 97 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

UN Kaerjeng 97 attack 2.63 + Minerva Lintgen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Minerva Lintgen scores more
17%
level
19%
UN Kaerjeng 97 scores more
63%

UN Kaerjeng 97 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "UN Kaerjeng 97 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Minerva Lintgen 0 – 3 UN Kaerjeng 97

UN Kaerjeng 97 beat Minerva Lintgen 3-0 in Cup on September 21, 2025.