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Minerva Lintgen vs The Belval Belvaux — Cup 2020

Minerva Lintgen
Minerva Lintgenadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
The Belval Belvaux
The Belval Belvaux
3/12/2025CupCup · Round of 16Stade Jean Donnersbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Minerva Lintgen29%
×Draw19%
The Belval Belvaux52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minerva Lintgen
2.02
The Belval Belvaux
2.68

The Belval Belvaux creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Minerva Lintgen
1.29
The Belval Belvaux
3.50

allows per match

Minerva Lintgen
1.86
The Belval Belvaux
2.75

finishing

Minerva Lintgen+0.00on par
The Belval Belvaux+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minerva Lintgen ↓

The Belval Belvaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Minerva Lintgen or draw
48%
Minerva Lintgen or The Belval Belvaux
81%
Draw or The Belval Belvaux
71%

Winning margin

Minerva Lintgen wins by 2+
15%
The Belval Belvaux wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Minerva Lintgen 1+ goals
87%
Minerva Lintgen 2+ goals
60%
Minerva Lintgen 3+ goals
33%
The Belval Belvaux 1+ goals
93%
The Belval Belvaux 2+ goals
74%
The Belval Belvaux 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Minerva Lintgen (draw refunded)
36%
The Belval Belvaux (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minerva Lintgen at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

The Belval Belvaux away — creates 3.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minerva Lintgen attack 1.29 + The Belval Belvaux defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.02

The Belval Belvaux attack 3.50 + Minerva Lintgen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Minerva Lintgen scores more
29%
level
19%
The Belval Belvaux scores more
52%

The Belval Belvaux at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "The Belval Belvaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Minerva Lintgen vs The Belval Belvaux

Minerva Lintgen beat The Belval Belvaux 2-1 in Cup on March 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Jean Donnersbach in Lintgen.