Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Minerva Lintgen vs Daring Echternach — Cup 2020

Minerva Lintgen
Minerva Lintgen
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Daring Echternach
Daring Echternach
11/10/2024CupCup · Round of 32Stade Jean Donnersbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Minerva Lintgen25%
×Draw23%
Daring Echternach52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minerva Lintgen
1.15
Daring Echternach
1.77

Daring Echternach creates 54% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Minerva Lintgen
1.29
Daring Echternach
1.67

allows per match

Minerva Lintgen
1.86
Daring Echternach
1.00

finishing

Minerva Lintgen+0.00on par
Daring Echternach+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minerva Lintgen ↓

Daring Echternach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Minerva Lintgen or draw
48%
Minerva Lintgen or Daring Echternach
77%
Draw or Daring Echternach
75%

Winning margin

Minerva Lintgen wins by 2+
10%
Daring Echternach wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Minerva Lintgen 1+ goals
68%
Minerva Lintgen 2+ goals
32%
Minerva Lintgen 3+ goals
11%
Daring Echternach 1+ goals
83%
Daring Echternach 2+ goals
53%
Daring Echternach 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Minerva Lintgen (draw refunded)
32%
Daring Echternach (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minerva Lintgen at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Daring Echternach away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minerva Lintgen attack 1.29 + Daring Echternach defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Daring Echternach attack 1.67 + Minerva Lintgen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Minerva Lintgen scores more
25%
level
23%
Daring Echternach scores more
52%

Daring Echternach at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Daring Echternach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Minerva Lintgen vs Daring Echternach

Minerva Lintgen and Daring Echternach drew 1-1 in Cup on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Jean Donnersbach in Lintgen.