Minerva Lintgen 0–0 Blo-Wäiss Izeg: Result & Stats

Minerva Lintgen

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Blo-Wäiss Izeg

9/9/2020

Cup · 1st RoundStade Jean Donnersbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Minerva Lintgen24%

×Draw21%

Blo-Wäiss Izeg55%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minerva LintgenExpected goals in this matchBlo-Wäiss Izeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.10

Minerva Lintgen

1.31

Blo-Wäiss Izeg

2.10

Blo-Wäiss Izeg creates 60% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.29

creates per match

2.33

1.86

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Minerva Lintgen

1.29

Blo-Wäiss Izeg

2.33

allows per match

Minerva Lintgen

1.86

Blo-Wäiss Izeg

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minerva Lintgen+0.00on par

Blo-Wäiss Izeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minerva Lintgen ↓

Blo-Wäiss Izeg →

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Minerva Lintgen or draw

45%

Minerva Lintgen or Blo-Wäiss Izeg

79%

Draw or Blo-Wäiss Izeg

76%

Winning margin

Minerva Lintgen wins by 2+

10%

Blo-Wäiss Izeg wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Minerva Lintgen 1+ goals

73%

Minerva Lintgen 2+ goals

38%

Minerva Lintgen 3+ goals

14%

Blo-Wäiss Izeg 1+ goals

88%

Blo-Wäiss Izeg 2+ goals

62%

Blo-Wäiss Izeg 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Minerva Lintgen (draw refunded)

30%

Blo-Wäiss Izeg (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Minerva Lintgen at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Blo-Wäiss Izeg away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Minerva Lintgen attack 1.29 + Blo-Wäiss Izeg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Blo-Wäiss Izeg attack 2.33 + Minerva Lintgen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Minerva Lintgen scores more

24%

level

21%

Blo-Wäiss Izeg scores more

55%

Blo-Wäiss Izeg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Blo-Wäiss Izeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff