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Minerva Lintgen vs Atert Bissen — Cup 2020

Minerva Lintgen
Minerva Lintgen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atert Bissen
Atert Bissen
10/6/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Jean Donnersbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Minerva Lintgen20%
×Draw18%
Atert Bissen62%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minerva Lintgen
1.43
Atert Bissen
2.58

Atert Bissen creates 80% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Minerva Lintgen
1.29
Atert Bissen
3.29

allows per match

Minerva Lintgen
1.86
Atert Bissen
1.57

finishing

Minerva Lintgen+0.00on par
Atert Bissen+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minerva Lintgen ↓

Atert Bissen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Minerva Lintgen or draw
38%
Minerva Lintgen or Atert Bissen
82%
Draw or Atert Bissen
80%

Winning margin

Minerva Lintgen wins by 2+
8%
Atert Bissen wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Minerva Lintgen 1+ goals
76%
Minerva Lintgen 2+ goals
42%
Minerva Lintgen 3+ goals
17%
Atert Bissen 1+ goals
92%
Atert Bissen 2+ goals
72%
Atert Bissen 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Minerva Lintgen (draw refunded)
25%
Atert Bissen (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minerva Lintgen at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Atert Bissen away — creates 3.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minerva Lintgen attack 1.29 + Atert Bissen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Atert Bissen attack 3.29 + Minerva Lintgen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Minerva Lintgen scores more
20%
level
18%
Atert Bissen scores more
62%

Atert Bissen at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atert Bissen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Minerva Lintgen 1–0 Atert Bissen

Minerva Lintgen beat Atert Bissen 1-0 in Cup on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Jean Donnersbach in Lintgen.