Mineros de Zacatecas 1–0 Potros Uaem

Mineros de Zacatecas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Potros Uaem

2/2/2019

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 5Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba (Zacatecas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Mineros de Zacatecas51%

×Draw25%

Potros Uaem24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mineros de ZacatecasExpected goals in this matchPotros Uaem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.01

Mineros de Zacatecas

1.60

Potros Uaem

1.01

Mineros de Zacatecas creates 58% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 25 away

1.73

creates per match

0.96

1.06

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Mineros de Zacatecas

1.73

Potros Uaem

0.96

allows per match

Mineros de Zacatecas

1.06

Potros Uaem

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Potros Uaem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mineros de Zacatecas ↓

Potros Uaem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mineros de Zacatecas or draw

76%

Mineros de Zacatecas or Potros Uaem

75%

Draw or Potros Uaem

49%

Winning margin

Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+

27%

Potros Uaem wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals

80%

Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals

47%

Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals

22%

Potros Uaem 1+ goals

64%

Potros Uaem 2+ goals

27%

Potros Uaem 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)

68%

Potros Uaem (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mineros de Zacatecas at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.06 · 136 matches

Potros Uaem away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.73 + Potros Uaem defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.60

Potros Uaem attack 0.96 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mineros de Zacatecas scores more

51%

level

25%

Potros Uaem scores more

24%

Mineros de Zacatecas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mineros de Zacatecas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff