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Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
10/12/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Mineros de Zacatecas49%
×Draw25%
Leones Negros UDG25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.58
Leones Negros UDG
1.06

Mineros de Zacatecas creates 49% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 134 away

creates per match

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.75
Leones Negros UDG
1.04

allows per match

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.07
Leones Negros UDG
1.42

finishing

Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par
Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mineros de Zacatecas ↓

Leones Negros UDG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mineros de Zacatecas or draw
75%
Mineros de Zacatecas or Leones Negros UDG
75%
Draw or Leones Negros UDG
51%

Winning margin

Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
26%
Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
79%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
47%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
21%
Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
65%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
29%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
66%
Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mineros de Zacatecas at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.07 · 138 matches

Leones Negros UDG away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.75 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.04 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
49%
level
25%
Leones Negros UDG scores more
25%

Mineros de Zacatecas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mineros de Zacatecas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Mineros de Zacatecas 2–0 Leones Negros UDG

Mineros de Zacatecas beat Leones Negros UDG 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on October 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba in Zacatecas.