Mineros de Zacatecas 0–1 Leones Negros UDG

Mineros de Zacatecas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leones Negros UDG

2/2/2024

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 4Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Mineros de Zacatecas49%

×Draw25%

Leones Negros UDG25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mineros de ZacatecasExpected goals in this matchLeones Negros UDG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.06

Mineros de Zacatecas

1.58

Leones Negros UDG

1.06

Mineros de Zacatecas creates 49% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 134 away

1.75

creates per match

1.04

1.07

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Mineros de Zacatecas

1.75

Leones Negros UDG

1.04

allows per match

Mineros de Zacatecas

1.07

Leones Negros UDG

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mineros de Zacatecas ↓

Leones Negros UDG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mineros de Zacatecas or draw

75%

Mineros de Zacatecas or Leones Negros UDG

75%

Draw or Leones Negros UDG

51%

Winning margin

Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+

26%

Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals

79%

Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals

47%

Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals

21%

Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals

65%

Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals

29%

Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)

66%

Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mineros de Zacatecas at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.07 · 138 matches

Leones Negros UDG away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.75 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.04 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mineros de Zacatecas scores more

49%

level

25%

Leones Negros UDG scores more

25%

Mineros de Zacatecas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mineros de Zacatecas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff