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Mineros de Zacatecas vs Celaya — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Celaya
Celaya
7/28/2018Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba (Zacatecas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Mineros de Zacatecas45%
×Draw26%
Celaya29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.44
Celaya
1.11

Mineros de Zacatecas creates 30% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 119 away

creates per match

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.75
Celaya
1.15

allows per match

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.07
Celaya
1.13

finishing

Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par
Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mineros de Zacatecas ↓

Celaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mineros de Zacatecas or draw
71%
Mineros de Zacatecas or Celaya
74%
Draw or Celaya
55%

Winning margin

Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
22%
Celaya wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
76%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
42%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
18%
Celaya 1+ goals
67%
Celaya 2+ goals
30%
Celaya 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
60%
Celaya (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mineros de Zacatecas at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.07 · 138 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.75 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Celaya attack 1.15 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
45%
level
26%
Celaya scores more
29%

Mineros de Zacatecas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mineros de Zacatecas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mineros de Zacatecas vs Celaya

Mineros de Zacatecas beat Celaya 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on July 28, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba (Zacatecas).