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Celaya vs Mineros de Zacatecas — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Celaya
Celaya
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
9/19/2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Celaya48%
×Draw26%
Mineros de Zacatecas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celaya
1.52
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.05

Celaya creates 45% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 136 away

creates per match

Celaya
1.51
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.24

allows per match

Celaya
0.87
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.53

finishing

Celaya+0.00on par
Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celaya ↓

Mineros de Zacatecas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Celaya or draw
74%
Celaya or Mineros de Zacatecas
74%
Draw or Mineros de Zacatecas
52%

Winning margin

Celaya wins by 2+
24%
Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Celaya 1+ goals
78%
Celaya 2+ goals
45%
Celaya 3+ goals
20%
Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
65%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
28%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Celaya (draw refunded)
65%
Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celaya at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.87 · 119 matches

Mineros de Zacatecas away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celaya attack 1.51 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.24 + Celaya defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Celaya scores more
48%
level
26%
Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
26%

Celaya at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Celaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Celaya 2–3 Mineros de Zacatecas

Mineros de Zacatecas beat Celaya 3-2 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés in Celaya.