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Mineros de Zacatecas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
8/24/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Mineros de Zacatecas55%
×Draw23%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.77
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.00

Mineros de Zacatecas creates 77% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 124 away

creates per match

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.75
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0.93

allows per match

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.07
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.80

finishing

Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par
Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mineros de Zacatecas ↓

Alebrijes de Oaxaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mineros de Zacatecas or draw
79%
Mineros de Zacatecas or Alebrijes de Oaxaca
77%
Draw or Alebrijes de Oaxaca
45%

Winning margin

Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
31%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
83%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
53%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
26%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals
63%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals
26%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
72%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mineros de Zacatecas at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.07 · 138 matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.75 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 0.93 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
55%
level
23%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more
21%

Mineros de Zacatecas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mineros de Zacatecas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Mineros de Zacatecas 2–2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Mineros de Zacatecas and Alebrijes de Oaxaca drew 2-2 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba in Zacatecas.