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Mineros de Guyana vs Llaneros de Guanare — Primera División 2018

Mineros de Guyana
Mineros de Guyana
Canc
20:00
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
5/31/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mineros de Guyana53%
×Draw22%
Llaneros de Guanare25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mineros de Guyana
1.96
Llaneros de Guanare
1.29

Mineros de Guyana creates 52% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 20 away

creates per match

Mineros de Guyana
1.43
Llaneros de Guanare
1.45

allows per match

Mineros de Guyana
1.13
Llaneros de Guanare
2.50

finishing

Mineros de Guyana+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mineros de Guyana ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mineros de Guyana or draw
75%
Mineros de Guyana or Llaneros de Guanare
78%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
47%

Winning margin

Mineros de Guyana wins by 2+
31%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mineros de Guyana 1+ goals
86%
Mineros de Guyana 2+ goals
58%
Mineros de Guyana 3+ goals
31%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
72%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
37%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mineros de Guyana (draw refunded)
68%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mineros de Guyana at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.13 · 91 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mineros de Guyana attack 1.43 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.96

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.45 + Mineros de Guyana defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mineros de Guyana scores more
53%
level
22%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
25%

Mineros de Guyana at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mineros de Guyana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mineros de Guyana host Llaneros de Guanare

May 31, 2020: Mineros de Guyana take on Llaneros de Guanare in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.