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Llaneros de Guanare vs Mineros de Guyana — Primera División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Mineros de Guyana
Mineros de Guyana
2/10/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 3Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare42%
×Draw25%
Mineros de Guyana33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.48
Mineros de Guyana
1.29

Llaneros de Guanare creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 94 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.37
Mineros de Guyana
1.06

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.53
Mineros de Guyana
1.59

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Mineros de Guyana+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Mineros de Guyana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
67%
Llaneros de Guanare or Mineros de Guyana
75%
Draw or Mineros de Guyana
58%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
20%
Mineros de Guyana wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
77%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
43%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
19%
Mineros de Guyana 1+ goals
72%
Mineros de Guyana 2+ goals
37%
Mineros de Guyana 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
56%
Mineros de Guyana (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Mineros de Guyana away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.37 + Mineros de Guyana defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mineros de Guyana attack 1.06 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
42%
level
25%
Mineros de Guyana scores more
33%

Llaneros de Guanare at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Llaneros de Guanare 3–3 Mineros de Guyana

Llaneros de Guanare and Mineros de Guyana drew 3-3 in Primera División on February 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).