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Mineros de Guyana vs Deportivo La Guaira — Primera División 2018

Mineros de Guyana
Mineros de Guyana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
10/21/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 16CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Mineros de Guyana39%
×Draw27%
Deportivo La Guaira34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mineros de Guyana
1.31
Deportivo La Guaira
1.19

Mineros de Guyana creates 10% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 149 away

creates per match

Mineros de Guyana
1.43
Deportivo La Guaira
1.24

allows per match

Mineros de Guyana
1.13
Deportivo La Guaira
1.19

finishing

Mineros de Guyana+0.00on par
Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mineros de Guyana ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mineros de Guyana or draw
66%
Mineros de Guyana or Deportivo La Guaira
73%
Draw or Deportivo La Guaira
61%

Winning margin

Mineros de Guyana wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mineros de Guyana 1+ goals
73%
Mineros de Guyana 2+ goals
38%
Mineros de Guyana 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mineros de Guyana (draw refunded)
54%
Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mineros de Guyana at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.13 · 91 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mineros de Guyana attack 1.43 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.24 + Mineros de Guyana defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mineros de Guyana scores more
39%
level
27%
Deportivo La Guaira scores more
34%

Mineros de Guyana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mineros de Guyana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mineros de Guyana vs Deportivo La Guaira

Mineros de Guyana and Deportivo La Guaira drew 1-1 in Primera División on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana).