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Deportivo La Guaira vs Mineros de Guyana — Primera División 2018

Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mineros de Guyana
Mineros de Guyana
12/10/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Group A - 17Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira50%
×Draw26%
Mineros de Guyana24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Guaira
1.54
Mineros de Guyana
0.98

Deportivo La Guaira creates 57% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 94 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira
1.49
Mineros de Guyana
1.06

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira
0.89
Mineros de Guyana
1.59

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par
Mineros de Guyana+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

Mineros de Guyana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw
76%
Deportivo La Guaira or Mineros de Guyana
74%
Draw or Mineros de Guyana
50%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
26%
Mineros de Guyana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
20%
Mineros de Guyana 1+ goals
62%
Mineros de Guyana 2+ goals
26%
Mineros de Guyana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
68%
Mineros de Guyana (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 150 matches

Mineros de Guyana away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.49 + Mineros de Guyana defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Mineros de Guyana attack 1.06 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more
50%
level
26%
Mineros de Guyana scores more
24%

Deportivo La Guaira at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo La Guaira vs Mineros de Guyana

Mineros de Guyana beat Deportivo La Guaira 1-0 in Primera División on December 10, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.