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Minaur Baia Mare vs SCM Gloria Buzău — Liga II 2018

Minaur Baia Mare
Minaur Baia Mare
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
3/12/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 19Stadionul Viorel Mateianu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Minaur Baia Mare37%
×Draw26%
SCM Gloria Buzău37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minaur Baia Mare
1.34
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 66 away

creates per match

Minaur Baia Mare
1.42
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.35

allows per match

Minaur Baia Mare
1.33
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.26

finishing

Minaur Baia Mare+0.00on par
SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minaur Baia Mare ↓

SCM Gloria Buzău →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Minaur Baia Mare or draw
63%
Minaur Baia Mare or SCM Gloria Buzău
74%
Draw or SCM Gloria Buzău
63%

Winning margin

Minaur Baia Mare wins by 2+
17%
SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Minaur Baia Mare 1+ goals
74%
Minaur Baia Mare 2+ goals
39%
Minaur Baia Mare 3+ goals
15%
SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
74%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
39%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Minaur Baia Mare (draw refunded)
50%
SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minaur Baia Mare at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

SCM Gloria Buzău away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minaur Baia Mare attack 1.42 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 1.35 + Minaur Baia Mare defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Minaur Baia Mare scores more
37%
level
26%
SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
37%

Minaur Baia Mare at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Minaur Baia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Minaur Baia Mare vs SCM Gloria Buzău

Minaur Baia Mare and SCM Gloria Buzău drew 1-1 in Liga II on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Viorel Mateianu in Baia Mare.