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Minaur Baia Mare vs Ripensia Timisoara — Liga II 2018

Minaur Baia Mare
Minaur Baia Mare
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
8/20/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 3Stadionul Viorel Mateianu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Minaur Baia Mare44%
×Draw26%
Ripensia Timisoara31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minaur Baia Mare
1.46
Ripensia Timisoara
1.18

Minaur Baia Mare creates 24% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 70 away

creates per match

Minaur Baia Mare
1.42
Ripensia Timisoara
1.03

allows per match

Minaur Baia Mare
1.33
Ripensia Timisoara
1.49

finishing

Minaur Baia Mare+0.00on par
Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minaur Baia Mare ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Minaur Baia Mare or draw
69%
Minaur Baia Mare or Ripensia Timisoara
74%
Draw or Ripensia Timisoara
56%

Winning margin

Minaur Baia Mare wins by 2+
21%
Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Minaur Baia Mare 1+ goals
77%
Minaur Baia Mare 2+ goals
43%
Minaur Baia Mare 3+ goals
18%
Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
69%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
33%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Minaur Baia Mare (draw refunded)
59%
Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minaur Baia Mare at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minaur Baia Mare attack 1.42 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + Minaur Baia Mare defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Minaur Baia Mare scores more
44%
level
26%
Ripensia Timisoara scores more
31%

Minaur Baia Mare at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Minaur Baia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Minaur Baia Mare 1–1 Ripensia Timisoara

Minaur Baia Mare and Ripensia Timisoara drew 1-1 in Liga II on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Viorel Mateianu in Baia Mare.