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Minas ICESP W vs Sao Jose W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Minas ICESP W
Minas ICESP W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sao Jose W
Sao Jose W
3/16/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia (Ceilândia, Distrito Federal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Minas ICESP W34%
×Draw25%
Sao Jose W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minas ICESP W
1.40
Sao Jose W
1.55

Sao Jose W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 37 away

creates per match

Minas ICESP W
1.38
Sao Jose W
1.05

allows per match

Minas ICESP W
2.05
Sao Jose W
1.41

finishing

Minas ICESP W+0.00on par
Sao Jose W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minas ICESP W ↓

Sao Jose W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Minas ICESP W or draw
59%
Minas ICESP W or Sao Jose W
75%
Draw or Sao Jose W
66%

Winning margin

Minas ICESP W wins by 2+
16%
Sao Jose W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Minas ICESP W 1+ goals
75%
Minas ICESP W 2+ goals
41%
Minas ICESP W 3+ goals
17%
Sao Jose W 1+ goals
79%
Sao Jose W 2+ goals
46%
Sao Jose W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Minas ICESP W (draw refunded)
46%
Sao Jose W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minas ICESP W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Sao Jose W away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minas ICESP W attack 1.38 + Sao Jose W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sao Jose W attack 1.05 + Minas ICESP W defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Minas ICESP W scores more
34%
level
25%
Sao Jose W scores more
41%

Sao Jose W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sao Jose W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Minas ICESP W 1–3 Sao Jose W

Sao Jose W beat Minas ICESP W 3-1 in Brasileiro Women on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia (Ceilândia, Distrito Federal).