Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Minas ICESP W vs Santos W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Minas ICESP W
Minas ICESP W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Santos W
Santos W
4/26/2021Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Minas ICESP W28%
×Draw22%
Santos W50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minas ICESP W
1.42
Santos W
1.95

Santos W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 60 away

creates per match

Minas ICESP W
1.38
Santos W
1.85

allows per match

Minas ICESP W
2.05
Santos W
1.47

finishing

Minas ICESP W+0.00on par
Santos W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minas ICESP W ↓

Santos W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Minas ICESP W or draw
50%
Minas ICESP W or Santos W
78%
Draw or Santos W
72%

Winning margin

Minas ICESP W wins by 2+
12%
Santos W wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Minas ICESP W 1+ goals
76%
Minas ICESP W 2+ goals
41%
Minas ICESP W 3+ goals
17%
Santos W 1+ goals
86%
Santos W 2+ goals
58%
Santos W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Minas ICESP W (draw refunded)
36%
Santos W (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minas ICESP W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Santos W away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minas ICESP W attack 1.38 + Santos W defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Santos W attack 1.85 + Minas ICESP W defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Minas ICESP W scores more
28%
level
22%
Santos W scores more
50%

Santos W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santos W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Minas ICESP W 2–2 Santos W

Minas ICESP W and Santos W drew 2-2 in Brasileiro Women on April 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia in Ceilândia, Distrito Federal.