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Minas ICESP W vs Ponte Preta W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Minas ICESP W
Minas ICESP W
FT
1 – 0
Ponte Preta W
Ponte Preta W
7/10/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia (Ceilândia, Distrito Federal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Minas ICESP W50%
×Draw23%
Ponte Preta W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minas ICESP W
1.85
Ponte Preta W
1.32

Minas ICESP W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

Minas ICESP W
1.38
Ponte Preta W
0.59

allows per match

Minas ICESP W
2.05
Ponte Preta W
2.32

finishing

Minas ICESP W+0.00on par
Ponte Preta W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minas ICESP W ↓

Ponte Preta W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Minas ICESP W or draw
73%
Minas ICESP W or Ponte Preta W
77%
Draw or Ponte Preta W
50%

Winning margin

Minas ICESP W wins by 2+
28%
Ponte Preta W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Minas ICESP W 1+ goals
84%
Minas ICESP W 2+ goals
55%
Minas ICESP W 3+ goals
28%
Ponte Preta W 1+ goals
73%
Ponte Preta W 2+ goals
38%
Ponte Preta W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Minas ICESP W (draw refunded)
64%
Ponte Preta W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minas ICESP W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Ponte Preta W away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minas ICESP W attack 1.38 + Ponte Preta W defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ponte Preta W attack 0.59 + Minas ICESP W defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Minas ICESP W scores more
50%
level
23%
Ponte Preta W scores more
27%

Minas ICESP W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Minas ICESP W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Minas ICESP W 1 – 0 Ponte Preta W

Minas ICESP W beat Ponte Preta W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on July 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia (Ceilândia, Distrito Federal).