Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Minas ICESP W vs Kindermann W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Minas ICESP W
Minas ICESP W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kindermann W
Kindermann W
7/21/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia (Ceilândia, Distrito Federal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Minas ICESP W37%
×Draw24%
Kindermann W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minas ICESP W
1.51
Kindermann W
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 55 away

creates per match

Minas ICESP W
1.38
Kindermann W
1.11

allows per match

Minas ICESP W
2.05
Kindermann W
1.65

finishing

Minas ICESP W+0.00on par
Kindermann W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minas ICESP W ↓

Kindermann W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Minas ICESP W or draw
60%
Minas ICESP W or Kindermann W
76%
Draw or Kindermann W
63%

Winning margin

Minas ICESP W wins by 2+
17%
Kindermann W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Minas ICESP W 1+ goals
78%
Minas ICESP W 2+ goals
44%
Minas ICESP W 3+ goals
19%
Kindermann W 1+ goals
79%
Kindermann W 2+ goals
47%
Kindermann W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Minas ICESP W (draw refunded)
48%
Kindermann W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minas ICESP W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Kindermann W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.65 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minas ICESP W attack 1.38 + Kindermann W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

Kindermann W attack 1.11 + Minas ICESP W defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Minas ICESP W scores more
37%
level
24%
Kindermann W scores more
40%

Kindermann W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kindermann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Minas ICESP W 1–0 Kindermann W

Minas ICESP W beat Kindermann W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on July 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia (Ceilândia, Distrito Federal).