Minas ICESP W 1–0 Iranduba W: Result & Stats

Minas ICESP W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Iranduba W

3/30/2019

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia (Ceilândia, Distrito Federal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Minas ICESP W33%

×Draw24%

Iranduba W43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minas ICESP WExpected goals in this matchIranduba W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.61

Minas ICESP W

1.37

Iranduba W

1.61

Iranduba W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

1.38

creates per match

1.18

2.05

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Minas ICESP W

1.38

Iranduba W

1.18

allows per match

Minas ICESP W

2.05

Iranduba W

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minas ICESP W+0.00on par

Iranduba W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minas ICESP W ↓

Iranduba W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Minas ICESP W or draw

57%

Minas ICESP W or Iranduba W

76%

Draw or Iranduba W

67%

Winning margin

Minas ICESP W wins by 2+

15%

Iranduba W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Minas ICESP W 1+ goals

75%

Minas ICESP W 2+ goals

40%

Minas ICESP W 3+ goals

16%

Iranduba W 1+ goals

80%

Iranduba W 2+ goals

48%

Iranduba W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Minas ICESP W (draw refunded)

43%

Iranduba W (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minas ICESP W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Iranduba W away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minas ICESP W attack 1.38 + Iranduba W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Iranduba W attack 1.18 + Minas ICESP W defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Minas ICESP W scores more

33%

level

24%

Iranduba W scores more

43%

Iranduba W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Iranduba W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff