Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Minas ICESP W vs Internacional RS W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Minas ICESP W
Minas ICESP W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Internacional RS W
Internacional RS W
4/21/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia (Ceilândia, Distrito Federal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Minas ICESP W29%
×Draw23%
Internacional RS W48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minas ICESP W
1.32
Internacional RS W
1.76

Internacional RS W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 64 away

creates per match

Minas ICESP W
1.38
Internacional RS W
1.48

allows per match

Minas ICESP W
2.05
Internacional RS W
1.27

finishing

Minas ICESP W+0.00on par
Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minas ICESP W ↓

Internacional RS W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Minas ICESP W or draw
52%
Minas ICESP W or Internacional RS W
77%
Draw or Internacional RS W
71%

Winning margin

Minas ICESP W wins by 2+
12%
Internacional RS W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Minas ICESP W 1+ goals
73%
Minas ICESP W 2+ goals
38%
Minas ICESP W 3+ goals
15%
Internacional RS W 1+ goals
83%
Internacional RS W 2+ goals
52%
Internacional RS W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Minas ICESP W (draw refunded)
38%
Internacional RS W (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minas ICESP W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Internacional RS W away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minas ICESP W attack 1.38 + Internacional RS W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Internacional RS W attack 1.48 + Minas ICESP W defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Minas ICESP W scores more
29%
level
23%
Internacional RS W scores more
48%

Internacional RS W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Minas ICESP W 0–2 Internacional RS W

Internacional RS W beat Minas ICESP W 2-0 in Brasileiro Women on April 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia (Ceilândia, Distrito Federal).