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Minas ICESP W vs Bahia W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Minas ICESP W
Minas ICESP W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bahia W
Bahia W
6/6/2021Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Ciro Machado do Espírito Santo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Minas ICESP W39%
×Draw24%
Bahia W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minas ICESP W
1.57
Bahia W
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 30 away

creates per match

Minas ICESP W
1.38
Bahia W
1.03

allows per match

Minas ICESP W
2.05
Bahia W
1.77

finishing

Minas ICESP W+0.00on par
Bahia W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minas ICESP W ↓

Bahia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Minas ICESP W or draw
63%
Minas ICESP W or Bahia W
76%
Draw or Bahia W
61%

Winning margin

Minas ICESP W wins by 2+
19%
Bahia W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Minas ICESP W 1+ goals
79%
Minas ICESP W 2+ goals
46%
Minas ICESP W 3+ goals
21%
Bahia W 1+ goals
79%
Bahia W 2+ goals
45%
Bahia W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Minas ICESP W (draw refunded)
51%
Bahia W (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minas ICESP W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Bahia W away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minas ICESP W attack 1.38 + Bahia W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.57

Bahia W attack 1.03 + Minas ICESP W defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Minas ICESP W scores more
39%
level
24%
Bahia W scores more
37%

Minas ICESP W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Minas ICESP W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Minas ICESP W 1–0 Bahia W

Minas ICESP W beat Bahia W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Ciro Machado do Espírito Santo in Vila Planalto, Distrito Federal.