Minas Boca U20 0–6 Tres Coracoes U20

Minas Boca U20

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Tres Coracoes U20

Unknown 85', 72', 64', 52', 40', 10'

5/31/2024

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 4Campo do Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Minas Boca U2027%

×Draw21%

Tres Coracoes U2052%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minas Boca U20Expected goals in this matchTres Coracoes U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.12

Minas Boca U20

1.50

Tres Coracoes U20

2.12

Tres Coracoes U20 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

0.85

creates per match

1.86

2.38

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Minas Boca U20

0.85

Tres Coracoes U20

1.86

allows per match

Minas Boca U20

2.38

Tres Coracoes U20

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minas Boca U20+0.00on par

Tres Coracoes U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minas Boca U20 ↓

Tres Coracoes U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Minas Boca U20 or draw

48%

Minas Boca U20 or Tres Coracoes U20

79%

Draw or Tres Coracoes U20

73%

Winning margin

Minas Boca U20 wins by 2+

12%

Tres Coracoes U20 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Minas Boca U20 1+ goals

78%

Minas Boca U20 2+ goals

44%

Minas Boca U20 3+ goals

19%

Tres Coracoes U20 1+ goals

88%

Tres Coracoes U20 2+ goals

62%

Tres Coracoes U20 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Minas Boca U20 (draw refunded)

35%

Tres Coracoes U20 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minas Boca U20 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Tres Coracoes U20 away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minas Boca U20 attack 0.85 + Tres Coracoes U20 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tres Coracoes U20 attack 1.86 + Minas Boca U20 defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Minas Boca U20 scores more

27%

level

21%

Tres Coracoes U20 scores more

52%

Tres Coracoes U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tres Coracoes U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

40'

52'

64'

72'

85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff