Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Minas Boca U20 vs Contagem U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Minas Boca U20
Minas Boca U20
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Contagem U20
Contagem U20
F. Marona 66' (pen)
P. M. Allef 45', 39', 9'
7/26/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 12Arena Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Minas Boca U2026%
×Draw26%
Contagem U2048%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minas Boca U20
1.05
Contagem U20
1.52

Contagem U20 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Minas Boca U20
0.85
Contagem U20
0.67

allows per match

Minas Boca U20
2.38
Contagem U20
1.25

finishing

Minas Boca U20+0.00on par
Contagem U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minas Boca U20 ↓

Contagem U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Minas Boca U20 or draw
52%
Minas Boca U20 or Contagem U20
74%
Draw or Contagem U20
74%

Winning margin

Minas Boca U20 wins by 2+
10%
Contagem U20 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Minas Boca U20 1+ goals
65%
Minas Boca U20 2+ goals
28%
Minas Boca U20 3+ goals
9%
Contagem U20 1+ goals
78%
Contagem U20 2+ goals
45%
Contagem U20 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Minas Boca U20 (draw refunded)
35%
Contagem U20 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minas Boca U20 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Contagem U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minas Boca U20 attack 0.85 + Contagem U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Contagem U20 attack 0.67 + Minas Boca U20 defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Minas Boca U20 scores more
26%
level
26%
Contagem U20 scores more
48%

Contagem U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Contagem U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
P. M. Allef
39'
P. M. Allef
45'
P. M. Allef
66'
F. MaronaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Minas Boca U20 0–4 Contagem U20

Contagem U20 beat Minas Boca U20 4-0 in Mineiro U20 on July 26, 2024.

Goals: P. M. Allef (9', 39', 45'), F. Marona (66' pen).

The match was played at Arena Santa Cruz in Contagem, Minas Gerais.