Minaj U19 2–1 Rukh Vynnyky U19: Result & Stats

Minaj U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rukh Vynnyky U19

4/21/2024

U19 League · Round 25Stadion Sokil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Minaj U1932%

×Draw25%

Rukh Vynnyky U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minaj U19Expected goals in this matchRukh Vynnyky U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.52

Minaj U19

1.28

Rukh Vynnyky U19

1.52

Rukh Vynnyky U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

1.07

creates per match

1.64

1.40

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Minaj U19

1.07

Rukh Vynnyky U19

1.64

allows per match

Minaj U19

1.40

Rukh Vynnyky U19

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minaj U19+0.00on par

Rukh Vynnyky U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minaj U19 ↓

Rukh Vynnyky U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Minaj U19 or draw

57%

Minaj U19 or Rukh Vynnyky U19

75%

Draw or Rukh Vynnyky U19

68%

Winning margin

Minaj U19 wins by 2+

14%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Minaj U19 1+ goals

72%

Minaj U19 2+ goals

37%

Minaj U19 3+ goals

14%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 1+ goals

78%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 2+ goals

45%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Minaj U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minaj U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Rukh Vynnyky U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minaj U19 attack 1.07 + Rukh Vynnyky U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.28

Rukh Vynnyky U19 attack 1.64 + Minaj U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Minaj U19 scores more

32%

level

25%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 scores more

43%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rukh Vynnyky U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff