Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Minaj U19 vs LNZ Cherkasy U19 — U19 League 2023

Minaj U19
Minaj U19
FT
0 – 1
LNZ Cherkasy U19
LNZ Cherkasy U19
8/4/2023U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 2Stadion SKIF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Minaj U1954%
×Draw23%
LNZ Cherkasy U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minaj U19
1.89
LNZ Cherkasy U19
1.19

Minaj U19 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Minaj U19
1.07
LNZ Cherkasy U19
0.98

allows per match

Minaj U19
1.40
LNZ Cherkasy U19
2.71

finishing

Minaj U19+0.00on par
LNZ Cherkasy U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minaj U19 ↓

LNZ Cherkasy U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Minaj U19 or draw
76%
Minaj U19 or LNZ Cherkasy U19
77%
Draw or LNZ Cherkasy U19
46%

Winning margin

Minaj U19 wins by 2+
31%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Minaj U19 1+ goals
85%
Minaj U19 2+ goals
56%
Minaj U19 3+ goals
29%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 1+ goals
70%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 2+ goals
33%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Minaj U19 (draw refunded)
69%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minaj U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

LNZ Cherkasy U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minaj U19 attack 1.07 + LNZ Cherkasy U19 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.89

LNZ Cherkasy U19 attack 0.98 + Minaj U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Minaj U19 scores more
54%
level
23%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 scores more
24%

Minaj U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Minaj U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Minaj U19 0–1 LNZ Cherkasy U19

LNZ Cherkasy U19 beat Minaj U19 1-0 in U19 League on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SKIF in Lviv.