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Minai vs Vorskla Poltava — Premier League 2019

Minai
Minai
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vorskla Poltava
Vorskla Poltava
5/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Stadion Mynai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Minai36%
×Draw28%
Vorskla Poltava36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minai
1.14
Vorskla Poltava
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 82 away

creates per match

Minai
0.87
Vorskla Poltava
0.91

allows per match

Minai
1.38
Vorskla Poltava
1.40

finishing

Minai+0.00on par
Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minai ↓

Vorskla Poltava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Minai or draw
64%
Minai or Vorskla Poltava
72%
Draw or Vorskla Poltava
64%

Winning margin

Minai wins by 2+
15%
Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Minai 1+ goals
68%
Minai 2+ goals
32%
Minai 3+ goals
11%
Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals
68%
Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals
32%
Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Minai (draw refunded)
50%
Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minai at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Vorskla Poltava away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minai attack 0.87 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Vorskla Poltava attack 0.91 + Minai defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Minai scores more
36%
level
28%
Vorskla Poltava scores more
36%

Minai at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Minai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Minai 2–0 Vorskla Poltava

Minai beat Vorskla Poltava 2-0 in Premier League on May 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Mynai in Mynai.