Minai 2–2 Oleksandria: Result & Stats

Minai

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Oleksandria

Y. Hunichev 75'

D. Ustymenko 63'

V. Kalitvintsev 58'

A. Kulakov 50'

3/31/2024

Premier League · Round 22Stadion Mynai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Minai33%

×Draw28%

Oleksandria39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MinaiExpected goals in this matchOleksandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.21

Minai

1.08

Oleksandria

1.21

Oleksandria creates 12% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 101 away

0.87

creates per match

1.04

1.38

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Minai

0.87

Oleksandria

1.04

allows per match

Minai

1.38

Oleksandria

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minai+0.00on par

Oleksandria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minai ↓

Oleksandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Minai or draw

61%

Minai or Oleksandria

72%

Draw or Oleksandria

67%

Winning margin

Minai wins by 2+

13%

Oleksandria wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Minai 1+ goals

66%

Minai 2+ goals

29%

Minai 3+ goals

10%

Oleksandria 1+ goals

70%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

34%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Minai (draw refunded)

46%

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minai at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.29 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minai attack 0.87 + Oleksandria defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Oleksandria attack 1.04 + Minai defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Minai scores more

33%

level

28%

Oleksandria scores more

39%

Oleksandria at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

19'

30'

42'

45+2'

46'

B. Biloshevskyi← Miguel Campos

49'

Serhii Petko

50'

A. Kulakov↳ A. Shulianskyi

58'

V. Kalitvintsev↳ Y. Kopyna

60'

O. Bieliaiev← A. Shulianskyi

61'

O. Martyniuk← Y. Kopyna

63'

Y. Hunichev← V. Vakula

63'

V. Semotiuk← V. Vitenchuk

63'

D. Ustymenko↳ Y. Skyba

71'

Kyrylo Kovalets

75'

Y. Hunichev↳ B. Chuiev

79'

Kyrylo Kovalets

79'

Kyrylo Kovalets

80'

D. Piddubnyi← B. Chuiev

81'

A. Remeniak← Y. Kysil

82'

V. Pohorilyi← A. Kulakov

82'

D. Shostak← M. Mykhailenko

90+3'

Artur Remenyak

90+1'

D. Niemchaninov← K. Prokopchuk

Minai3-5-2

Oleksandria4-1-4-1

10

⚽

▼

Kulakov

11

A

▼

Shuliansk

6

Kovalets

25

Kaliuzhny

9

⚽

Kalitvint

91

▼

Mykhailen

30

A

▼

Kopyna

18

Lohinov

26

▼

22

77

35

3

▼

Prokopchu

22

A

Skyba

4

A

▼

Chuiev

5

Korniichu

44

▼

Vitenchuk

32

Petko

97

Korablin

77

▼

Kysil

9

⚽

Ustymenko

99

▼

Vakula

Manager: Ž. Ljubenović

63'▲Y. Hunichev←▼V. Vakula

63'▲V. Semotiuk←▼V. Vitenchuk

80'▲D. Piddubnyi←▼B. Chuiev

81'▲A. Remeniak←▼Y. Kysil

90+1'▲D. Niemchaninov←▼K. Prokopchuk

Minai substitutes

7Hunichev71Semotiuk47Piddubnyi29Remeniak23Niemchaninov19Popov11Demydenko13Bandura2Dmytruk6Vashkeba8Matiushenko10Tyshchuk

Manager: R. Rotan

46'▲B. Biloshevskyi←▼Miguel Campos

60'▲O. Bieliaiev←▼A. Shulianskyi

61'▲O. Martyniuk←▼Y. Kopyna

82'▲V. Pohorilyi←▼A. Kulakov

82'▲D. Shostak←▼M. Mykhailenko

Oleksandria substitutes

16Biloshevskyi21Bieliaiev24Martyniuk88Pohorilyi71Shostak55Smyrnyi70Kostyshyn33Alvina44Yermakov99Dé8Siheiev4Kravchenko