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Minai vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Premier League 2019

Minai
Minai
CANC
14:00
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
4/16/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Minai34%
×Draw29%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minai
1.06
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 56 away

creates per match

Minai
0.87
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.84

allows per match

Minai
1.38
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.25

finishing

Minai+0.00on par
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minai ↓

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Minai or draw
63%
Minai or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
71%
Draw or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
66%

Winning margin

Minai wins by 2+
13%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Minai 1+ goals
65%
Minai 2+ goals
29%
Minai 3+ goals
9%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals
67%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals
30%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Minai (draw refunded)
48%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minai at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minai attack 0.87 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.84 + Minai defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Minai scores more
34%
level
29%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more
37%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Metalist 1925 Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Minai face Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Minai hosting Metalist 1925 Kharkiv. Match starts April 16, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Minai host Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.