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Minai vs LNZ Cherkasy — Premier League 2026

Minai
Minai
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
LNZ Cherkasy
LNZ Cherkasy
8/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Stadion Mynai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Minai27%
×Draw29%
LNZ Cherkasy44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minai
0.90
LNZ Cherkasy
1.23

LNZ Cherkasy creates 37% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 46 away

creates per match

Minai
0.87
LNZ Cherkasy
1.07

allows per match

Minai
1.38
LNZ Cherkasy
0.93

finishing

Minai+0.00on par
LNZ Cherkasy+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minai ↓

LNZ Cherkasy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Minai or draw
56%
Minai or LNZ Cherkasy
71%
Draw or LNZ Cherkasy
73%

Winning margin

Minai wins by 2+
9%
LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Minai 1+ goals
59%
Minai 2+ goals
23%
Minai 3+ goals
6%
LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals
71%
LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals
35%
LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Minai (draw refunded)
38%
LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minai at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

LNZ Cherkasy away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minai attack 0.87 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.07 + Minai defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Minai scores more
27%
level
29%
LNZ Cherkasy scores more
44%

LNZ Cherkasy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "LNZ Cherkasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Minai vs LNZ Cherkasy

LNZ Cherkasy beat Minai 3-0 in Premier League on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Mynai in Mynai.