Minai 0–1 Kryvbas KR: Result & Stats

Minai

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kryvbas KR

11/25/2023

Premier League · Round 15Stadion Mynai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Minai29%

×Draw28%

Kryvbas KR43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MinaiExpected goals in this matchKryvbas KR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.30

Minai

1.01

Kryvbas KR

1.30

Kryvbas KR creates 29% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 60 away

0.87

creates per match

1.22

1.38

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Minai

0.87

Kryvbas KR

1.22

allows per match

Minai

1.38

Kryvbas KR

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minai+0.00on par

Kryvbas KR+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minai ↓

Kryvbas KR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Minai or draw

57%

Minai or Kryvbas KR

72%

Draw or Kryvbas KR

71%

Winning margin

Minai wins by 2+

11%

Kryvbas KR wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Minai 1+ goals

64%

Minai 2+ goals

27%

Minai 3+ goals

8%

Kryvbas KR 1+ goals

73%

Kryvbas KR 2+ goals

37%

Kryvbas KR 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Minai (draw refunded)

40%

Kryvbas KR (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minai at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Kryvbas KR away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minai attack 0.87 + Kryvbas KR defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.01

Kryvbas KR attack 1.22 + Minai defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Minai scores more

29%

level

28%

Kryvbas KR scores more

43%

Kryvbas KR at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kryvbas KR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff