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Viking vs Sogndal — Eliteserien 2026

Viking
Viking
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sogndal
Sogndal
5/16/2016EliteserienEliteserien · Round 11SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Viking60%
×Draw20%
Sogndal20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking
2.22
Sogndal
1.21

Viking creates 83% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 8 away

creates per match

Viking
2.31
Sogndal
1.13

allows per match

Viking
1.29
Sogndal
2.13

finishing

Viking+0.00on par
Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Sogndal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Viking or draw
80%
Viking or Sogndal
80%
Draw or Sogndal
40%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+
37%
Sogndal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals
89%
Viking 2+ goals
65%
Viking 3+ goals
38%
Sogndal 1+ goals
70%
Sogndal 2+ goals
34%
Sogndal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)
75%
Sogndal (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.29 · 98 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.31 + Sogndal defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.22

Sogndal attack 1.13 + Viking defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Viking scores more
60%
level
20%
Sogndal scores more
20%

Viking at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
J. RaitalaSogndalSogndal · D
7.9

Match Events

24'
Martin Ramsland
61'
T. Aasheim← M. Bringaker
71'
U. Sale← J. Jørgensen
72'
Jukka Raitala
76'
K. Opseth← G. Koomson
78'
P. Pedersen← S. Abdullahi
80'
R. Bolseth← M. Ramsland
89'
H. Patronen← E. Birkelund

Possession

54%Viking

Shots

7Viking

Pass accuracy

53%Viking

Statistics

VikingSogndal
Overview
54%Possession46%
7Total Shots11
0Corners6
9Fouls17
Shots
7Total Shots11
3On Target2
2Off Target5
2Blocked4
3Inside Box4
4Outside Box7
Passing
54%Possession46%
431Total Passes350
303Accurate Passes215
70%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls17
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Viking vs Sogndal

Viking and Sogndal drew 0-0 in Eliteserien on May 16, 2016.

Viking controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.