Lillestrom 1–2 Sogndal: Result & Stats

Lillestrom

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sogndal

I. Mathew 69'

O. Sveen 72'

G. Koomson 65' (pen)

9/25/2016

Eliteserien · Round 25Åråsen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lillestrom53%

×Draw22%

Sogndal25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchSogndal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.29

Lillestrom

1.99

Sogndal

1.29

Lillestrom creates 54% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 7 away

1.54

creates per match

1.29

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.54

Sogndal

1.29

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.29

Sogndal

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lillestrom+0.00on par

Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Sogndal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

75%

Lillestrom or Sogndal

78%

Draw or Sogndal

47%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

31%

Sogndal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

86%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

59%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

32%

Sogndal 1+ goals

72%

Sogndal 2+ goals

37%

Sogndal 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

68%

Sogndal (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.29 · 82 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.54 + Sogndal defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.99

Sogndal attack 1.29 + Lillestrom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lillestrom scores more

53%

level

22%

Sogndal scores more

25%

Lillestrom at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

I. Mathew

Lillestrom · M

7.5

Match Events

64'

Frode Kippe

65'

G. KoomsonPenalty

69'

I. Mathew

71'

O. Rindarøy← B. Innocent

71'

M. Martin← G. Martin

72'

O. Sveen

74'

R. Bolseth← L. Kjemhus

83'

R. Holsæter← M. Ramsland

89'

V. Moberg← G. Koomson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LillestromSogndal

Overview

43%Possession57%

16Total Shots7

6Corners1

17Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots7

2On Target4

6Off Target1

8Blocked2

11Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

322Total Passes436

179Accurate Passes299

56%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls8

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1