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Al-Duhail SC vs Qatar SC — League #305 2026

Al-Duhail SC
Al-Duhail SC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Qatar SC
Qatar SC
1/4/2020League #305League #305 · Round 12Thani Bin Jassim Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al-Duhail SC22%
×Draw30%
Qatar SC48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Duhail SC
0.75
Qatar SC
1.25

Qatar SC creates 67% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al-Duhail SC
1.50
Qatar SC
1.00

allows per match

Al-Duhail SC
1.50
Qatar SC
0.00

finishing

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par
Qatar SC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Duhail SC ↓

Qatar SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al-Duhail SC or draw
52%
Al-Duhail SC or Qatar SC
70%
Draw or Qatar SC
78%

Winning margin

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+
7%
Qatar SC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals
53%
Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals
17%
Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals
4%
Qatar SC 1+ goals
71%
Qatar SC 2+ goals
36%
Qatar SC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)
32%
Qatar SC (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Duhail SC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Qatar SC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Duhail SC attack 1.50 + Qatar SC defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Qatar SC attack 1.00 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al-Duhail SC scores more
22%
level
30%
Qatar SC scores more
48%

Qatar SC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Qatar SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
Hamad Mansour← Abdulaziz Adel
61'
H. Rajah
61'
E. Junior
71'
S. Khaled
72'
Assim Madibo← Khalid Mohammed
72'
Ibrahim Jamal Abdelfattah← Eisa Palangi
85'
M. Benatia
90'
Mohamed Al Rabiei← Ahmed Doozandeh

Match Recap: Al-Duhail SC vs Qatar SC

Al-Duhail SC and Qatar SC drew 0-0 in League #305 on January 4, 2020.

The match was played at Thani Bin Jassim Stadium in Doha.