Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stjarnan vs Breidablik — Úrvalsdeild 2026

Stjarnan
Stjarnan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Breidablik
Breidablik
Hilmar Halldórsson 67'
H. Fridjonsson 46'
8/9/2017ÚrvalsdeildÚrvalsdeild · Round 14Samsung völlurinn (Garðabær)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Stjarnan39%
×Draw23%
Breidablik38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stjarnan
1.70
Breidablik
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 101 away

creates per match

Stjarnan
1.97
Breidablik
1.84

allows per match

Stjarnan
1.49
Breidablik
1.43

finishing

Stjarnan+0.00on par
Breidablik+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stjarnan ↓

Breidablik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Stjarnan or draw
62%
Stjarnan or Breidablik
77%
Draw or Breidablik
61%

Winning margin

Stjarnan wins by 2+
20%
Breidablik wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Stjarnan 1+ goals
82%
Stjarnan 2+ goals
51%
Stjarnan 3+ goals
24%
Breidablik 1+ goals
81%
Breidablik 2+ goals
50%
Breidablik 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Stjarnan (draw refunded)
51%
Breidablik (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stjarnan at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.49 · 97 matches

Breidablik away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.43 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stjarnan attack 1.97 + Breidablik defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.70

Breidablik attack 1.84 + Stjarnan defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stjarnan scores more
39%
level
23%
Breidablik scores more
38%

Stjarnan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stjarnan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
H. Fridjonsson
67'
Hilmar Halldórsson

Match Recap: Stjarnan vs Breidablik

Stjarnan beat Breidablik 2-0 in Úrvalsdeild on August 9, 2017.

Goals: H. Fridjonsson (46'), Hilmar Halldórsson (67').

The match was played at Samsung völlurinn (Garðabær).