Breidablik 2–1 Stjarnan: Result & Stats

Breidablik

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stjarnan

H. Gunnlaugsson 90'

K. Steindorsson 28'

O. Eggertsson 50'

4/23/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 3Kópavogsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Breidablik45%

×Draw22%

Stjarnan33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BreidablikExpected goals in this matchStjarnan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.60

Breidablik

1.90

Stjarnan

1.60

Breidablik creates 19% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

2.22

creates per match

1.62

1.57

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Breidablik

2.22

Stjarnan

1.62

allows per match

Breidablik

1.57

Stjarnan

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Breidablik+0.00on par

Stjarnan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breidablik ↓

Stjarnan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Breidablik or draw

67%

Breidablik or Stjarnan

78%

Draw or Stjarnan

55%

Winning margin

Breidablik wins by 2+

25%

Stjarnan wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Breidablik 1+ goals

85%

Breidablik 2+ goals

56%

Breidablik 3+ goals

29%

Stjarnan 1+ goals

80%

Stjarnan 2+ goals

47%

Stjarnan 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Breidablik (draw refunded)

58%

Stjarnan (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breidablik at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.57 · 23 matches

Stjarnan away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breidablik attack 2.22 + Stjarnan defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.90

Stjarnan attack 1.62 + Breidablik defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Breidablik scores more

45%

level

22%

Stjarnan scores more

33%

Breidablik at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Breidablik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

V. Valgeirsson

28'

K. Steindorsson

41'

K. Kjartansson

50'

O. Eggertsson↳ D. Matthiasson

58'

E. Atlason

63'

J. H. Barkarson← A. Bjarnason

63'

G. Nokkvason← K. Kjartansson

65'

B. Gudlaugsson

69'

A. Adolphsson← B. Gudlaugsson

73'

V. Einarsson← K. Steindorsson

73'

A. Bjarnason← A. Thorsteinsson

75'

D. Matthiasson

76'

S. Jonsson← D. Matthiasson

76'

A. Hauksson← S. Fridjonsson

90+5'

J. Elisabetarson

90'

H. Gunnlaugsson↳ A. Jonsson

Breidablik

Stjarnan

12

Olafsson

6

Ingimarss

32

Orvarsson

10

▼

Fridjonss

7

⚽

Eggertsso

30

▼

Kjartanss

28

▼

Gudlaugss

19

A

▼

Matthiass

99

▼

23

22

1

30

7

⚽

21

17

4

6

A

Jonsson

9

Omarsson

15

▼

Thorstein

10

⚽

▼

Steindors

77

Thomsen

Manager: Halldór Árnason

73'▲V. Einarsson←▼K. Steindorsson

73'▲A. Bjarnason←▼A. Thorsteinsson

Breidablik substitutes

12Bragason2Obbekjaer8Einarsson11Bjarnason13Ludviksson16Fjeldsted24Gautason29Hallsson31Gunnleifsson

Manager: Þórarinn Ingi Valdimarsson

63'▲J. H. Barkarson←▼A. Bjarnason

63'▲G. Nokkvason←▼K. Kjartansson

69'▲A. Adolphsson←▼B. Gudlaugsson

76'▲S. Jonsson←▼D. Matthiasson

76'▲A. Hauksson←▼S. Fridjonsson

Stjarnan substitutes

1Birnuson11Birgisson14Barkarson17Adolphsson18Nokkvason24Jonsson29Hauksson39Gudmundsson41Gudjonsson

Úrvalsdeild: Breidablik 2–1 Stjarnan

Breidablik beat Stjarnan 2-1 in Úrvalsdeild on April 23, 2025.

Goals: K. Steindorsson (28'), O. Eggertsson (50'), H. Gunnlaugsson (90').

The match was played at Kópavogsvöllur in Kópavogur.

Breidablik vs Stjarnan — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Úrvalsdeild: Breidablik 2–1 Stjarnan