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Milton Keynes Dons W vs Birmingham City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Milton Keynes Dons W
Milton Keynes Dons W
FT
0 – 2
Birmingham City W
Birmingham City W
12/10/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundStadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons W45%
×Draw21%
Birmingham City W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons W
2.09
Birmingham City W
1.82

Milton Keynes Dons W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons W
2.75
Birmingham City W
1.89

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons W
1.75
Birmingham City W
1.44

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons W+0.00on par
Birmingham City W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons W ↓

Birmingham City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons W or draw
66%
Milton Keynes Dons W or Birmingham City W
79%
Draw or Birmingham City W
55%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons W wins by 2+
25%
Birmingham City W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons W 1+ goals
88%
Milton Keynes Dons W 2+ goals
62%
Milton Keynes Dons W 3+ goals
34%
Birmingham City W 1+ goals
84%
Birmingham City W 2+ goals
54%
Birmingham City W 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons W (draw refunded)
57%
Birmingham City W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Birmingham City W away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons W attack 2.75 + Birmingham City W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.09

Birmingham City W attack 1.89 + Milton Keynes Dons W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Milton Keynes Dons W scores more
45%
level
21%
Birmingham City W scores more
34%

Milton Keynes Dons W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Milton Keynes Dons W 0–2 Birmingham City W

Birmingham City W beat Milton Keynes Dons W 2-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadium mk in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.