Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 Wigan: Result & Stats

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wigan

H. Darling 88'

T. Naylor 58'

3/12/2022

League One · Round 38Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons40%

×Draw28%

Wigan32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchWigan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.09

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

Wigan

1.09

Milton Keynes Dons creates 17% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 53 away

1.27

creates per match

1.04

1.14

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

Wigan

1.04

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.14

Wigan

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Wigan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

68%

Milton Keynes Dons or Wigan

72%

Draw or Wigan

60%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

18%

Wigan wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

72%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

36%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

14%

Wigan 1+ goals

66%

Wigan 2+ goals

30%

Wigan 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

56%

Wigan (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Wigan defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Wigan attack 1.04 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

40%

level

28%

Wigan scores more

32%

Milton Keynes Dons at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

H. Darling

Milton Keynes Dons · D

7.3

Match Events

31'

39'

57'

58'

66'

D. Kasumu← J. McEachran

75'

David Kasumu

75'

T. Corbeanu← M. Eisa

84'

G. Edwards← G. Massey

85'

H. Boateng← D. Lewington

85'

J. Magennis← S. Humphrys

88'

H. Darling↳ S. Twine

90+1'

Curtis Tilt

90'

T. Bayliss← T. Pearce

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonWigan

Overview

59%Possession41%

5Total Shots6

6Corners4

11Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots6

2On Target1

0Off Target0

3Blocked5

4Inside Box1

1Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

480Total Passes334

393Accurate Passes247

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2