Milton Keynes Dons 1–0 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Swindon Town

A. Nemane 17'

12/26/2025

League Two · Round 22Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons44%

×Draw25%

Swindon Town31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.27

Milton Keynes Dons

1.56

Swindon Town

1.27

Milton Keynes Dons creates 23% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 115 away

1.64

creates per match

1.46

1.07

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.64

Swindon Town

1.46

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.07

Swindon Town

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

69%

Milton Keynes Dons or Swindon Town

75%

Draw or Swindon Town

56%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

22%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

79%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

46%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

21%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

72%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

36%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

59%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 73 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.49 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.64 + Swindon Town defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Swindon Town attack 1.46 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

44%

level

25%

Swindon Town scores more

31%

Milton Keynes Dons at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Ripley

Swindon Town · G

9.2

Match Events

17'

21'

38'

53'

59'

60'

J. Snowdon← J. McGregor

63'

K. Thompson-Sommers← W. Collar

63'

J. Mellish← A. Nemane

70'

R. Hepburn-Murphy← A. Collins

72'

J. Ball← R. Tafazolli

72'

P. Ehibhatiomhan← B. Bodin

88'

J. Tabor← D. Oldaker

89'

C. Lemonheigh-Evans← G. Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonSwindon

Overview

41%Possession59%

15Total Shots11

5Corners8

10Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots11

5On Target3

7Off Target6

3Blocked2

12Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

293Total Passes419

181Accurate Passes316

62%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0