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Milton Keynes Dons vs Sunderland — League One 2018

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sunderland
Sunderland
8/14/2021League OneLeague One · Round 2Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons36%
×Draw28%
Sunderland36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.20
Sunderland
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 90 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.31
Sunderland
1.28

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.14
Sunderland
1.09

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
64%
Milton Keynes Dons or Sunderland
72%
Draw or Sunderland
64%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
15%
Sunderland wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
70%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
34%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
12%
Sunderland 1+ goals
70%
Sunderland 2+ goals
34%
Sunderland 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
50%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 93 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.09 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.31 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sunderland attack 1.28 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
36%
level
28%
Sunderland scores more
36%

Milton Keynes Dons at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Milton Keynes Dons 1–2 Sunderland

Sunderland beat Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 in League One on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadium mk in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.