Milton Keynes Dons 1–0 Reading: Result & Stats

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Reading

J. Walsh 78'

1/16/2016

Championship · Round 27Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons29%

×Draw32%

Reading38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.00

Milton Keynes Dons

0.83

Reading

1.00

Reading creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

0.67

Reading

1.00

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.00

Reading

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

62%

Milton Keynes Dons or Reading

68%

Draw or Reading

71%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

10%

Reading wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

56%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

20%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

5%

Reading 1+ goals

63%

Reading 2+ goals

26%

Reading 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

43%

Reading (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Reading away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 0.67 + Reading defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Reading attack 1.00 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

29%

level

32%

Reading scores more

38%

Reading at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

D. Williams

Reading · M

8.1

Match Events

25'

Chris Gunter

37'

Hal Robson-Kanu

63'

Samir Carruthers

64'

O. John← Lucas Piazon

67'

Kyle McFadzean

78'

J. Walsh

82'

S. Cox← H. Robson-Kanu

84'

Danny Williams

87'

M. Upson← R. Hall

90+3'

L. Hodson← S. Carruthers

90+4'

D. Bowditch← Josh Murphy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonReading

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots14

7Corners8

0Fouls0

Shots

11Total Shots14

4On Target4

6Off Target7

1Blocked3

9Inside Box6

2Outside Box8

Passing

44%Possession56%

371Total Passes450

260Accurate Passes323

70%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

0Fouls0

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3