Milton Keynes Dons 0–0 Oldham: Result & Stats

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oldham

8/2/2025

League Two · Round 1Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons48%

×Draw26%

Oldham26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.05

Milton Keynes Dons

1.52

Oldham

1.05

Milton Keynes Dons creates 45% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

1.84

creates per match

1.30

0.80

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.84

Oldham

1.30

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

0.80

Oldham

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

74%

Milton Keynes Dons or Oldham

74%

Draw or Oldham

52%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

24%

Oldham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

78%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

45%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

20%

Oldham 1+ goals

65%

Oldham 2+ goals

28%

Oldham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

65%

Oldham (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.84 + Oldham defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.52

Oldham attack 1.30 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

48%

level

26%

Oldham scores more

26%

Milton Keynes Dons at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

L. Offord

Milton Keynes Dons · D

7.7

Match Events

55'

Jack Sanders

59'

J. Hawkes← K. Morris

61'

C. Paterson← K. Thompson-Sommers

68'

L. Hannant← J. Stevens

73'

J. Leko← R. Hepburn-Murphy

74'

82'

84'

86'

87'

W. Collar← N. Mendez-Laing

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonOldham

Overview

63%Possession37%

5Total Shots5

0.19Expected Goals (xG)0.24

7Corners3

17Fouls16

Shots

5Total Shots5

0On Target1

4Off Target1

1Blocked3

2Inside Box4

3Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

446Total Passes261

341Accurate Passes156

76%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0