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Milton Keynes Dons vs Hull City — League One 2018

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Hull City
Hull City
11/21/2020League OneLeague One · Round 13Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons28%
×Draw25%
Hull City47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.18
Hull City
1.61

Hull City creates 36% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 23 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.31
Hull City
2.09

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.14
Hull City
1.04

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
53%
Milton Keynes Dons or Hull City
75%
Draw or Hull City
72%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
11%
Hull City wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
69%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
33%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
12%
Hull City 1+ goals
80%
Hull City 2+ goals
48%
Hull City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
37%
Hull City (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 93 matches

Hull City away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.31 + Hull City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Hull City attack 2.09 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
28%
level
25%
Hull City scores more
47%

Hull City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Milton Keynes Dons 1–3 Hull City

Hull City beat Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 in League One on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadium mk in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.