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Milton Keynes Dons vs Huddersfield — Championship 2020

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Huddersfield
Huddersfield
A. Revell 28'
N. Wells 86'
2/23/2016ChampionshipChampionship · Round 33Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons39%
×Draw29%
Huddersfield32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.15
Huddersfield
1.01

Milton Keynes Dons creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 94 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
0.67
Huddersfield
1.02

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.00
Huddersfield
1.62

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Huddersfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
68%
Milton Keynes Dons or Huddersfield
71%
Draw or Huddersfield
61%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
16%
Huddersfield wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
68%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
32%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
11%
Huddersfield 1+ goals
64%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
27%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
55%
Huddersfield (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.62 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 0.67 + Huddersfield defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.15

Huddersfield attack 1.02 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
39%
level
29%
Huddersfield scores more
32%

Milton Keynes Dons at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
M. CranieHuddersfieldHuddersfield · D
7.6

Match Events

28'
A. Revell↳ J. Williams
34'
Jonathan Hogg
43'
Nahki Wells
46'
P. Billing← J. Lolley
46'
E. Manu← H. Bunn
49'
Philip Billing
69'
R. Hall← J. Murphy
75'
N. Maynard← J. Williams
80'
J. Lynch← J. Husband
86'
N. Wells↳ M. Hudson
90'
Kyle McFadzean

Possession

50%Milton

Shots

11Milton

Pass accuracy

50%Milton

Statistics

MiltonHuddersfield
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots11
3Corners4
0Fouls0
Shots
11Total Shots11
5On Target2
5Off Target7
1Blocked2
6Inside Box6
5Outside Box5
Passing
50%Possession50%
385Total Passes374
280Accurate Passes276
73%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
0Fouls0
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
1Offsides2

Championship: Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 Huddersfield

Milton Keynes Dons and Huddersfield drew 1-1 in Championship on February 23, 2016.

Goals: A. Revell (28'), N. Wells (86').

Milton Keynes Dons controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadium mk in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.