Milton Keynes Dons 4–1 Harrogate Town

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Harrogate Town

B. Wiles 63'

A. Collins 51'

L. Offord 45'

R. Hepburn-Murphy 29'

T. Brenan 25'

3/7/2026

League Two · Round 36Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons52%

×Draw26%

Harrogate Town22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchHarrogate Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.91

Milton Keynes Dons

1.53

Harrogate Town

0.91

Milton Keynes Dons creates 68% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 26 away

1.69

creates per match

1.00

0.81

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.69

Harrogate Town

1.00

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

0.81

Harrogate Town

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Harrogate Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

78%

Milton Keynes Dons or Harrogate Town

74%

Draw or Harrogate Town

48%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

27%

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

78%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

45%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

20%

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

60%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

23%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

70%

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.81 · 42 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.69 + Harrogate Town defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.53

Harrogate Town attack 1.00 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

52%

level

26%

Harrogate Town scores more

22%

Milton Keynes Dons at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

L. Kelly

Milton Keynes Dons · M

7.9

Match Events

25'

T. Brenan

26'

Jack Sanders

29'

R. Hepburn-Murphy

45'

L. Offord↳ D. Crowley

46'

S. Hogan← R. Hepburn-Murphy

51'

60'

60'

63'

67'

M. Bennett← E. Acquah

67'

B. Faulkner← L. Gibson

70'

S. Waller← H. Gray

73'

J. Tomlinson← L. Offord

80'

L. Sutton← T. Brenan

81'

J. Leko← A. Collins

81'

G. Thomson← S. Duke-McKenna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonHarrogate

Overview

57%Possession43%

17Total Shots15

2.02Expected Goals (xG)0.99

7Corners2

11Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots15

9On Target4

4Off Target6

4Blocked5

12Inside Box7

5Outside Box8

Passing

57%Possession43%

482Total Passes362

364Accurate Passes263

76%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides3